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The NBA playoffs start this weekend. Between this and WrestleMania, this is truly my favorite time of the year. Trust me, that Andy Williams song will be on repeat Friday night and Saturday morning. The play-in games have been shockingly fun, and regardless of Friday night’s final results, here are my picks for who will win in Round 1 and advance to the semifinals.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Detroit Pistons vs. #8 Charlotte Hornets or Orlando Magic
Prediction: Pistons in 5
The X-Factor: It doesn’t really matter if it’s Charlotte or Orlando; the Pistons should win this series handily. However, the intensity of the matchup matters. If Orlando wins, this may be an “NBA TV Special” type of series. But if it’s Charlotte, I expect this brewing rivalry to be kicked up a major notch, especially after that big brawl a few months ago. Either way, Detroit Basketball should dominate.
Pivotal Player: Cade Cunningham
If Cade is 100% and cleared, Detroit should breeze through this. The Hornets simply don’t have the wave of defenders necessary to stop an ascending All-Star.
#2 Boston Celtics vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Celtics in 5
The X-Factor: If there is no Joel Embiid in any capacity, Philadelphia will experience yet another disappointing early exit. They’ll likely steal a game at home, but as great as Tyrese Maxey has been, Boston is coming into form at the right time which is bad news for the rest of the league, considering people thought this was a “gap year” for them.
Pivotal Player: Jayson Tatum
This is a safe choice, but Tatum is the engine for Boston’s title aspirations. While he doesn’t have to be at 100% for a deep run, any form of setback would be alarming. At the moment, a 90% Tatum is more than enough to win this series.
#3 New York Knicks vs. #6 Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Hawks in 6
The X-Factor: This matchup features one of my favorite teams against one of my favorite players. This Hawks squad seemed to go up a level after trading Trae Young and they look very dangerous. The Knicks had a great season, but the pressure is on. As great as Jalen Brunson is, there are elements of this Knicks team I simply can’t trust in a “win-or-go-home” scenario. I’m picking the first of two major upsets here going with my heart and the Hawks.
Pivotal Player: Karl-Anthony Towns
He is one of a select number of players I cannot stand to watch. I don’t believe in him (there’s just something about those Calipari UK big men!). As much as he and Brunson have gelled, Towns still does unforgivably dumb things at bad times. He’s a liability on defense and can disappear offensively sulking in a corner when things go wrong.
He is either a massive asset when the stars align or a glaring weak link who loses you a series. If he fails here, the Knicks fanbase will be firing up the ESPN Trade Machine to see how they land Giannis sooner rather than later.
#4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #5 Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Raptors in 7
The X-Factor: This is going to be a rock fight, and I’m here for it because my beloved Raptors are back! They’re facing a Cavs team with everything on the line. Trading Darius Garland (I’m still not over how fast they gave up on him) for James Harden was a clear “win now” move. But can Harden overcome his playoff demons? Can Evan Mobley assert himself? Toronto is playing with house money and has a fearless coach. That length could cause enough problems for Toronto to pull the upset.
Pivotal Player: James Harden
His legacy, his next contract, and his reputation are all on the line yet again. Will he overcome his past, or will we finally have to accept that he is just the modern guard version of Karl Malone? These last few years have told me something very different than his regular-season stats suggest.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #8 Golden State Warriors or Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Thunder in 4
The X-Factor: Ironically, there really shouldn’t be one. Even if the Warriors win and Steph Curry pulls a miracle out of his hat, OKC should handle this series easily.
Pivotal Player: Jalen Williams
J-Dub is the key to OKC’s title defense. He needs to repeat his efforts from last postseason to prove he’s a long-term cornerstone. This series should be a solid warm-up for him and the rest of the young Thunder roster.
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #7 Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: Spurs in 4
The X-Factor: This series is all about finding out if this young Spurs team is ready for a deep run. Will Wemby play more minutes to secure the sweep? Portland will be scrappy, but this is a litmus test for how far ahead of schedule San Antonio truly is.
Pivotal Player: Stephon Castle
I’m avoiding the obvious choice in Wemby. Castle is the tone-setter. I think he will be the game-breaker (or back-breaker) for Portland, ending this series quickly and establishing himself as a postseason force.
#3 Denver Nuggets vs. #6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Nuggets in 7
The X-Factor: Depth. The Nuggets’ bench must come through in this rematch. As much as I hate betting against Anthony Edwards—who has become a “legend killer”—the Wolves don’t feel as dangerous as they did last year. Players like Cam Johnson and Peyton Watson must step up if Denver wants to return to the Conference Finals.
Pivotal Player: Jaden McDaniels
If Minnesota wants to upset the champs again, it won’t actually come down to Randle, Reid, or Gobert. It comes down to McDaniels creating space and knocking down shots on the offensive end. If that doesn’t happen, this series ends even quicker than I predicted.
#4 LA Lakers vs. #5 Houston Rockets
Prediction: Rockets in 6
The X-Factor: This might be the messiest series of the first round. The Lakers are shorthanded, while Houston has looked disjointed lately. The real X-Factor is Houston’s situation at point guard. Coach Ime Udoka hasn’t shown much trust in his options there, but he may finally be forced to roll the dice.
Pivotal Player: Reed Sheppard
I’m throwing another curveball here. I was going to go with Amen Thompson, but I’m pivoting to Sheppard. He has been overlooked or punished by Udoka all season, but he might be the actual solution to their backcourt issues. Despite his defensive limitations, Houston needs his shooting and playmaking, especially with Austin Reaves and Luka Dončić sidelined for the Lakers.
