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Basketball season is back! While we’re past the opening tip, but still early enough for predictions that’ll either look genius or haunt me come April. Here’s some of my predictions, takes, and some other things about the 2025-26 season.
Awards Predictions
MVP: Luka Doncic
This feels like the year we see a changing of the guard or the beginning of one. Perhaps fourth time is the charm for once again I am picking Luka for MVP. He’s been flirting with MVP hardware for years, and a revenge Luka season will almost certainly get him the regular season award finally.
However, Anthony Edwards took a massive leap last season, and Minnesota’s system maximizes his two-way impact. If the Timberwolves stay elite defensively while Ant pushes his scoring closer to 28 per game with improved efficiency, he could absolutely win it. The league loves a new star ascending, and Edwards has that “new face of the league” factor whether he likes it or not.
Rookie of the Year: VJ Edgecombe
I decided not to go on the lame route with picking Cooper Flagg who I am sure everyone has locked for the rookie of the year. Instead, I went with VJ Edgecombe, who enters the league with one of the most intriguing skill sets in this class. His defensive versatility and athleticism give him an immediate pathway to being an impact player in Philadelphia and in today’s NBA, that matters. The backcourt combo of him and Maxey will be the only thing to excite the always frustrating sixer fans and be the thing that can finally move on from the Process/Embiid era in Philly.
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama
Wemby feels inevitable here. The 7’4 cheat code alien who can switch onto guards, protect the rim, and alter shots from distances that shouldn’t be physically possible. If San Antonio takes even a modest step forward as a team defense, he’ll coast to this award and maybe some others. But is there a dark horse? Dyson Daniels. He’s already shown in Atlanta last season that he can be an absolute menace on the ball, and if he continues to be dominant on defense then he can certainly challenge for DPOY this season.
Sixth Man of the Year: Naz Reid
Naz Reid already has one of these, and he’s going to get another. Minnesota’s depth is ridiculous, and Reid gives them everything: shooting, rim protection, physicality, and versatility. He’s the ultimate microwave big, capable of tilting games in bursts. Unless he gets thrust into the starting lineup full-time, then Reid will win this award for the second time in three years.
Most Improved Player: Amen Thompson
Amen Thompson is ready for a massive jump this season. The flashes were undeniable last season from the athleticism to his defensive instincts, If Houston commits to him being a part of their championship aspirations, the leap from interesting prospect to all-star will be huge. He’s got all-defense upside, and if his offensive game starts catching up with his physical tools, the future will be brighter in Houston.
But for some reason if Thompson doesn’t win this award then I expect it to go Thunder Unicorn Chet Holmgren. Coming off a championship run last season, Holmgren is destined to make another jump this year, his elite defense and efficiency would ensure OKC’s chance to go back to the NBA Finals barring injuries.
Coach of the Year: Mike Brown
Mike Brown’s move to New York puts him in prime position for coach of the Year consideration. He’s got the roster, the market spotlight, and a franchise hungry for results. If Mike Brown his best installing a strong defensive identity while opening up the offensive creativity then Knicks should make it through the East and to the finals. While the fan base will embrace him more than Tom Thibodeau, the pressure and expectations for the Knicks will be immense this year.
Now here are some takes I have about the upcoming season.
My Bold takes on this Season
An American-born player will finish top 3 in MVP voting
International stars have dominated the MVP conversation and rightfully so, but American born players are due for a comeback. With Steph Curry finishing third in 2021, and James Harden being the last American to actually win it in 2018, this season I expect an American born player to be a MVP finalist this season. Whether it’s Ant-Man, Jalen Brunson, or maybe Donovan Mitchell this feels like the season for one of them to put together a complete, undeniable season.
Victor Wembanyama records a quadruple-double
This may not be a bold take and more an inevitability. Victor Wembanyama came within spitting distance multiple times of doing this last season, and he’s only going to get more comfortable. The combination of his shot-blocking, playmaking flashes, and rebounding makes this feel very doable for Wemby this season to have 20,10,10, and 10 box score during the regular season.
Adam Silver will face serious heat this season
And finally, sadly we get to commissioner Adam Silver, who has some big fires to put out this season. With the recent gambling scandals are getting messier, and the Steve Ballmer/Aspiration situation has potential to be a real black devasting marks on the NBA. Silver has navigated plenty of crises, but this season feels like the one where multiple scandals could bring him and the association down. Whether its betting scandals, officiating controversies amplified by gambling discourse, or ownership drama via salary cap circumvention, the commissioner’s seat will be hotter than usual, where perhaps Silver’s Teflon coating might finally show some wear.
My Quantum Leapers
These are the guys poised to make the leap from a solid player or prospect to “wait, he’s actually THAT guy?”
PG: Scoot Henderson
Scoot Henderson had some setbacks last season but year 3 could be the year where the hype is validated. With the burst, the strength, the competitive fire, Henderson can help Portland be one of the surprise darling teams of the year being a much-needed bright spot for the Blazers, potentially being a play-in team.
SG: Dyson Daniels
The Great Barrier Thief will continue his ascension to being a major part of a successful team and season in Atlanta. If Daniels continues to be a defensive force while becoming a respectable shooter, the Hawks could be one of the top teams this year in the East challenging the Cavaliers and Knicks.
SF: Toumani Camara
Heading back to the pacific northwest, where the blazers have one of the most underrated players in the league. Toumani Camara does everything from defending multiple positions, crashes the glass, while not needing plays called for him. Expect Camara along with the rest of the young blazers to make some real noise this year.
PF: Jabari Smith Jr
While all the attention in Houston will likely be on Thompson, KD, and Sengun there is one player who could be a real surprise on the Rockets, Jabari Smith Jr. If Houston runs their huge lineup of Adams, Sengun, Smith Jr, KD, and Thompson this could be ideal for Smith Jr to make the big jump to become an important part of Houston’s success.
C: Alexandre Sarr
Alex Sarr’s got the prototypical modern big toolkit: mobility, shot-blocking, floor-spacing potential that came to surface last season. Now if Washington can tap into that progress at the end of last season, he could go from the interesting lottery pick” to a foundational piece in DC.
The Turn Team
These are the players where the narrative can shift, either because they’re underrated and about to get some long-awaited respect, or because their act and performance or lack thereof can no longer be uncriticized
PG: LaMelo Ball
This is LaMelo’s “put up or shut up” season. The talent has never been in question, but the durability and winning mentality/leadership have. If he stays on the floor and Charlotte shows real progress, the discourse flips from “empty stats guy” to a franchise player. But if it’s another 60-game or less season with mediocre results with some viral moments? Then patience will start wearing thin.
SG: Devin Booker
The complexity of Devin Booker will reach the breaking point this season. As the Suns snakebitten luck strikes again leaving the all-NBA scorer surrounded by uncertainty that could lead to the fork in the road moment we have been waiting for on whether he remains a Sun becoming an iconic “good stats, bad team guy” or forces a trade to a contending team and play in big playoff games again (Looking at you Detroit).
SF: Paul George
PG13 in Philly with Embiid have become the distain of that die hard Philadelphia fan base with their limited availability but highly expensive parts of the team. If he plays 70 games and looks like vintage Paul George, the perception flips back to him being elite two-way wing. But, If it’s another 45 games played season with no real impact then it may be the end of the road when it comes to Paul George being viewed as a serious veteran.
PF: Draymond Green
Draymond Green has been on thin ice with public perception. All the antics, theatrics, and behavior have led to a very loud “is he even worth it anymore?” discourse that may force Warriors management to make an uncomfortable decision. But if Golden State bounces back and he is locked in as the defensive quarterback and playmaking hub, then all the nonsense will be tolerated for one more season.
C: Domantas Sabonis
Sabonis is perpetually underrated, playing for the awful kings but that might finally change. If Sacramento continues to be well Sacramento with this incompatible roster the perception on the all-star will finally turn considering he is the centerpiece of the Kings. Even his consistent production and performance will not hold off the tide turning on Sabonis’ standing as one of the NBA’s better big men.
Lock in! Because it’s going to be a wild season that has gotten off to an exciting start that hopefully will carry on throughout this season.